Operational / Forecast Ensemble Flood Mapping

Forecast weather and streamflow models account for uncertainty by utilizing multi-member ensembles. Utilizing each member of the weather ensemble, flow models translate weather information into multiple streamflow simulations for each stream reach. However, when flood maps are generated only a single flow rate is chosen for each stream reach and a single flood map is generated. The emphasis of this project is to develop a methodology to create ensemble flood maps for use in continental-scale forecasting frameworks. In so doing, uncertainty in weather/flow forecasts can be realized through the differences in expected flood extents.